We all know that history repeats itself, and there are lots of red-flags associated with recessions. The media is always talking about it, but this time it might be a reality. Don’t let that freak you out just yet! Let’s go over the basic patterns that are typical before a recession hits.
Is A Recession Really Going To Happen?
No one knows exactly when a recession will occur. Lots of different factors can change, and any economic situation can reverse under the right circumstances. We aren’t claiming to know the future, but we do know the past. Several puzzle pieces need to fall into place before the economy starts to decline. That’s what we are focusing our forecasts on. It’s not a guarantee of a recession. The current situation is looking bleak, and here’s why we think it’s going to get much worse.
1. The US Treasury
If you want to know what the last seven economic declines had in common, then you don’t need to look any further than US Treasury Bonds. The whole world is losing their mind over it. It’s almost turning into mass hysteria. That’s because the yield curve has inverted. It shows that the economic future of the US economy is uncertain. Most economists think of this as a foolproof indicator of a recession looming over the country, but that’s a subject of debate among experts. The bottom line is that all recent recessions happened shortly after the US Treasury Bonds yield changed for the worse. It doesn’t prove that a decline is around the corner, but it makes it a realistic possibility. Some experts are completely convinced that the old world of economics is over, and they believe that this increase of uncertainty in the market will have little effect on the value of the dollar. It could be possible that technology has sped up value tracking to the point that the market seems more fluid than it actually is. That might mean our feedback could be more volatile, and it could make trends extremely unpredictable.
2. Probability Models
The most accepted probability models of an economic recession are by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. If you’re already worked up, then just take a minute to collect yourself before we go into this point. The Federal Reserve has estimated that there is around a 30 percent chance of a recession occurring within the next twelve months. Their estimates have stayed at less than ten percent since January of 2009. This a big deal, and their predictions are continuing to lean towards a coming recession. Economists who rely on the Federal Reserve’s index are assuming that we’re going to feel the results of these statistics midway through 2020. If something doesn’t change fast, then you might only have a little less than a year to prepare yourself. Conclusions are easy to draw from the Federal Reserve’s data, but that doesn’t mean it’s set in stone. We could bounce back within the next few months, and the US economy hasn’t come close to tanking yet.
3. Employment Statistics
Unemployment rates have been stable for most of the last several decades. Everyone wants to focus on unemployment, but the real insight is found within the employment data. What’s the first thing that businesses cut when they are uncertain about the economy? It’s always going to be the wages of their workers. That doesn’t mean people are getting paid less, but it does mean that employees are working fewer hours. The average number of hours worked per week have slowly been declining since 2017. It’s not enough for us to freak out about, but it’s enough to get our attention. A growing economy should show substantial stability, and that’s the opposite of what we’re seeing this year. The next big issue is the increase in temporary positions among employers. Our jobs are shifting more towards temporary employment than ever before. These type of opportunities are great for companies who are unsure about the stability of their business because they can easily downsize with very few repercussions. That tells us that businesses want to keep their workforce fluid and expendable. A strong market is made up of skilled workers with specialized training. A growing economy is built through high-demand production. The going outlook is more based on convenience than quality. This could be detrimental to the employment rate in the event of a financial collapse.
4. Confidence Indexes
One of the most important factors in any economic system is the opinion of the people. The United States is the financial trend-setter of the world economy, and the ongoing trade conflicts with China are having a huge impact on businesses. Many companies have been more reluctant to make new investments until the situation is resolved. It’s having clear effects on the confidence of businesses in almost every market. The indexes don’t lie, and that’s why we’re convinced that this is an important indicator in the coming recession. Supply and demand can change overnight based on the opinions of the public. Is this a sign that investors are nervous about what the future holds for North America? It certainly seems that the ongoing trade war might be the tipping point that leads us over the edge financially. Several Consumer Sentiment Indexes have been published over the last few years that show an obvious dissatisfaction across the board. Consumer confidence is higher than in decades past, but we saw the first major hurdle in the begging of 2019. Business indexes have dropped to their lowest point in three years. Opinion matters more in the long-term than it does at the moment. If we continue to see the presence of pessimism from the coming studies, then it could encourage less spending. It becomes a problem when that increased pessimism becomes a trend for a few years in a row.
5. Personal Debt Increases
Spending habits tend to change significantly when a recession is about to happen. People buy fewer cars, but they borrow more money to maintain their current lifestyle. You’ll also see a decrease in the number of new homes that are built, and the number of home renovations will slow down. That’s what we’ve noticed over the last ten years. The debt of the average American keeps growing, and that might be the only thing that’s giving the economy life. The debt-bubble is bound to pop at some point. Don’t be surprised if it gets a lot tougher to acquire a business loan in the coming years. Banks will have to make up for their loses on unpaid personal loans by cutting back somewhere.
Conclusion: Don’t Freak Out
We are at a point in time that’s filled with uncertainty, and that’s why you should maintain your certainty. Don’t freak out, and don’t panic! It’s only going to add to the problems we have at hand. The main point we want you to focus on is being prepared if a recession occurs. You don’t have to cut back, but you should shoot to hit a surplus on your budget for the next year. Getting ready isn’t about counting on the worst outcome. We just don’t want you to be taken by surprise! Work on reducing your expendable costs, and you’ll make it out just fine.
When entrepreneurs want to make more money, one strategy is to find ways to boost revenue. However, reducing expenses is also important. Profit equals revenue minus expenses. To increase profit, the best strategy is to use expense reduction and revenue boosting strategies together. Expense reduction involves pinpointing problems and finding ways to cut costs. It is not just a few simple tasks. It involves every facet of the business and its operations.
Inefficiencies may exist in multiple departments and on several levels. For example, the production department may not be working efficiently, and there may be multiple contributing factors. There may be supplier issues, outdated technologies, poor lighting, mismatched teams and more. In such a case, an expense reduction analyst may suggest a software to track and rearrange teams. Placing workers in the right positions during optimal shifts may help. Working out supplier issues, improving the lighting and adding new technologies may also help reduce the overall inefficiency of that department.
Expense reduction also facilitates investing and development. When a company owner saves some money and earns an extra profit, that extra money can be invested in special projects. If the projects will help the business grow and will help reduce overall expenses, that is an ideal outcome.
From HR to supply chain management, there are many facets to consider with expense reduction strategies. While some businesses assign supervision or management tasks to one or more people, they may not have the expertise to consider expense reduction as a holistic concept. To increase the usefulness of this tactic, it is essential to hire a specialist.
What an Expense Reduction Analyst Does
First, an analyst identifies all inefficiencies. The next step is finding ways to save money, and plans are formed to accomplish those tasks. The analyst monitors the savings throughout the process. In comparison with other types of consultants that do not specifically offer ERA, analysts in this applied discipline have an extensive network of special abilities that span more categories.
They carry out the plans, and the company owner decides how to allocate the savings. One of the consultant's top goals is to be an analyst, a manager and an acquirer. Analysts help clients learn how to save even more money in the future with better business practices. They can introduce companies to new strategies that can support long-term sustainability while increasing profit.
As a manager or a business owner, it may be necessary to have out-of-state or international travel expenses to keep your company up and running. Corporate travel is essential to hold meetings with suppliers, to meet clients, and to find new ideas and resources.
WORKERS COMPENSATION PROCESS
Bottom Line is a leader in workers’ compensation for Retailers, Wholesalers, Restaurants, Hotels, Home Health & Residential Care facilities in New York State. Bottom Line maximizes your productivity and profits by helping to keep your number one asset, your employees, working and safe.
The Problem The costs associated with rehiring, refraining, loss of productivity, poor morale and claims can exceed your premium drastically.
Bottom Line’s Solution As the manager of seven Safety Groups underwritten by the New York Insurance Fund, Bottom Line has saved hundreds of our clients over $100 million in workers’ compensation since 2009.
What are Safety Groups?
Safety Groups provide a high quality, low cost, fully insured workers’ compensation insurance solution to businesses with a proven track record of safety in the workplace
Our safety groups significantly reduce the cost of workers’ compensation for safety conscious members. Our fully insured safety groups work by pooling members’ annual premiums, and after deducting the costs of claims and administrative charges, the profits are returned to members in the form of a dividend. Only Safety-Conscious employers with a proven track record of safety are invited to join our Safety Groups.
BENEFITS OF WORKING WITH BOTTOM LINE:
• Savings through group advance discounts and dividends
• Claims Solution services that reduce claims and costs
• Comprehensive administration and audit services
• On-site safety engineering
WORK OPPORTUNITY TAX CREDIT
MAXIMIZE YOUR COMPANY’S TAX CREDIT POTENTIAL:
Every year companies miss out on millions of dollars in tax credits for something they do every day – hiring new employees. The Work Opportunity Tax Credit (“WOTC”) is a Federal tax incentive program to encourage employers to hire and retain employees from specific target groups such as:
• Qualified Youth
• Social Assistance Recipients
Although these tax credits range in value depending on the category of employee and length of employment, your company can receive a tax credit of up to $9,600 per new hire. The average credit for the hospitality industry can be as high as $2,000 per employee. Also, many states have companion credits that match or mimic WOTC. The New York Urban Youth Hiring Program can add up to $5,000, over two years, in additional tax credits. Some of the state and local credits are also REFUNDABLE when the entity does not have taxable income.
HOW THE PROGRAM WORKS:
The WOTC program requires the completion of several forms by the employee at the time they are hired. These forms need to be received by the correct state agency within 28 days of the employee start date. Our tax credit experts will work with your company to streamline the documentation process in order to minimize your work, and maximize the credits. We offer flexible options for you to process the necessary documentation in a timely manner, in order to receive approval of your credits. Many state agencies have a back-log of forms to process. Our team will keep your data and information organized, resolve any documentation discrepancies, and follow-up with the government on a regular basis to ensure your credits are approved in a timely manner.
WHO CAN BENEFIT:
Although any company that hires new employees can potentially benefit from the program, there are certain industry such as hospitality, retail and security which see significant benefits. Factors that drive higher returns for these industries include high- turnover rates, urban dwelling employee base, a younger workforce, and unique hiring requirements such as hiring military veterans.